Culture In Radio, our columnists Marcos Novaro and Carlos Germano analyze the scenario facing the pre-election October 23:
Marcos Novaro
"All parties seem to be looking for ideal combinations. And the ideal combinations are possible enemy. Bet on a more limited agreement, joining two clusters as the UCR / PS / GEN / CC and other PRO / PJ Dissident, it seems the best. A division into thirds of the electorate is more likely to prevent the ruling party wins in first round. If it is polarized into two in the first round, Kirchner can take more than 45%. And if the only candidate out Ricardo Alfonsin, lost at that stage. "
"Solanas down to the city to attempt an alliance with (Hermes) Binner in the nation. But risks to not only lower its national presence, but miss the city and may disappear as a national political project. "
"If Macri as it looks" back "to the City of Buenos Aires, you have to see if Solanas" is "in the City, because it can return to the presidency."
"There is such uncertainty about the armed men, who still played a priori more conservative may end up being the most arriegada with negative results. Macri can" download "to the City and lose the election. Macri tried to go to the national election, but it appears it will end in the Capital. "
"Binner is not a player to take risks. Talk of a possible presidential candidacy for the price rise. It is true that some sectors of socialism to think that to lose Alfonsin's hand against CFK it is better to lose with a center-left coalition: lose themselves as PS or rather with areas of center-left who think like us. "
Carlos Germano
"Of all the opposition candidates, which has shown greater willingness and ability to compete and win is Ricardo Alfonsin. Mauricio Macri today it is very diffuse, almost abandoning its national bid. Alfonsin raises strong play for power, have a party of power, and needs a strong candidate pcia. of Buenos Aires, hence the approach to Francisco De Narváez.
"De Narvaez today ranges from 20 points, with a floor of between 16 and 20 points en pcia of Buenos Aires, which is not far UCR or any other candidate in Buenos Aires. De Narváez's candidacy is now heavenly water for UCR, which has no form to reach 20 points today. "
" Necessity has the face of heresy. The pcia. of Buenos Aires is almost 39% of the electorate. The Margarita Stolbizer UCR in the last two elections did not go there 10% of votes. Stolbizer and his party are much more than they sell what they have and presents many difficulties to penetrate into the suburbs. "
"You have to see how close the famous issue of membership lists or collector in the Front for Victory, something that was traumatic in the 2009 elections, when they played two territorial leaders bands. De Narvaez can return to benefit. "
" There is much uncertainty. What is clear is that today are Michetti Macri and intention to vote first in the city. Daniel Filmus (22/24%) is second well-placed, almost repeating the scenario of 2007 where he won the 2nd Macri. back. Unlike Macri and Michetti, but Rodriguez Larreta does not assure victory to the PRO, it moves away from him. "
" Binner is now immersed in a local strategy more than anything else, because it has to pass PS internal choice and fought hard. But if he wins that contest, the deck and is given back. I do not see the UCR flagship necessarily an opposition electoral front. It could change things with a strengthened Binner Santa Fe facing a broader front. "
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