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day Germano, M. Novaro, in plural construction

Culture In Radio, our columnists Marcos Novaro and Carlos Germano analyze the scenario facing the pre-election October 23:


Marcos Novaro

"All parties seem to be looking for ideal combinations. And the ideal combinations are possible enemy. Bet on a more limited agreement, joining two clusters as the UCR / PS / GEN / CC and other PRO / PJ Dissident, it seems the best. A division into thirds of the electorate is more likely to prevent the ruling party wins in first round. If it is polarized into two in the first round, Kirchner can take more than 45%. And if the only candidate out Ricardo Alfonsin, lost at that stage. "



"Solanas down to the city to attempt an alliance with (Hermes) Binner in the nation. But risks to not only lower its national presence, but miss the city and may disappear as a national political project. "


"If Macri as it looks" back "to the City of Buenos Aires, you have to see if Solanas" is "in the City, because it can return to the presidency."


"There is such uncertainty about the armed men, who still played a priori more conservative may end up being the most arriegada with negative results. Macri can" download "to the City and lose the election. Macri tried to go to the national election, but it appears it will end in the Capital. "


"Binner is not a player to take risks. Talk of a possible presidential candidacy for the price rise. It is true that some sectors of socialism to think that to lose Alfonsin's hand against CFK it is better to lose with a center-left coalition: lose themselves as PS or rather with areas of center-left who think like us. "







Carlos Germano


"Of all the opposition candidates, which has shown greater willingness and ability to compete and win is Ricardo Alfonsin. Mauricio Macri today it is very diffuse, almost abandoning its national bid. Alfonsin raises strong play for power, have a party of power, and needs a strong candidate pcia. of Buenos Aires, hence the approach to Francisco De Narváez.



"De Narvaez today ranges from 20 points, with a floor of between 16 and 20 points en pcia of Buenos Aires, which is not far UCR or any other candidate in Buenos Aires. De Narváez's candidacy is now heavenly water for UCR, which has no form to reach 20 points today. "


" Necessity has the face of heresy. The pcia. of Buenos Aires is almost 39% of the electorate. The Margarita Stolbizer UCR in the last two elections did not go there 10% of votes. Stolbizer and his party are much more than they sell what they have and presents many difficulties to penetrate into the suburbs. "


"You have to see how close the famous issue of membership lists or collector in the Front for Victory, something that was traumatic in the 2009 elections, when they played two territorial leaders bands. De Narvaez can return to benefit. "


" There is much uncertainty. What is clear is that today are Michetti Macri and intention to vote first in the city. Daniel Filmus (22/24%) is second well-placed, almost repeating the scenario of 2007 where he won the 2nd Macri. back. Unlike Macri and Michetti, but Rodriguez Larreta does not assure victory to the PRO, it moves away from him. "


" Binner is now immersed in a local strategy more than anything else, because it has to pass PS internal choice and fought hard. But if he wins that contest, the deck and is given back. I do not see the UCR flagship necessarily an opposition electoral front. It could change things with a strengthened Binner Santa Fe facing a broader front. "

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Memoirs of a soul ...

Poblet Bernardo trial returns to fiction with" Memoirs of the soul ...", suggestive story, which is already visible from the book's cover: a cat challenges us with his inquisitive and beautiful look.


It is published by Editorial Dunken. It occurs in the Book Fair.

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G. Carracedo, in policy journals plural construction

Dialogue with our columnist Guillermo CARRACEDO , economist ; CADEC owner of the consulting SA , former Executive Vice President and General Coordinator of the Group Bunge y Born in Argentina:

"The DNU 441 has a name: Techint.

"" The issue of directors Techint is not a cash item, it is perhaps a suspicion by increased investment in Brazil, which is reasonable for the company since the economic model does not hold water here, not today, but we know that we are mortgaging the fururo. And so the Government pushes for investment in the country, to improve the economic situation will not explode. It is no longer just a problem of legal uncertainty in U.S. inflation but unmanageable. "

" At the end of the government of Isabel Peron, the State asked a loan from the IMF and the body's response was: "Bunge Born and what you think. I was there as director of Bunge y Born met with Minister (Antonio) Cafiero. As in the B and B was 60/70/80, today is the Techint group., "the "axis to see how companies invest and so on that basis to facilitate the arrival of foreign investors. The same happened to me in the 80's with the government of Raul Alfonsin and the need for such management had to be close to that we invested in Argentina. "

"productive potential investors are alarmed by this change in the rules of the game in our country."

"The presence of minority representatives in a directory is neutral. And even with the profile that has this young man's Campora. For Techint, would more complicated if a specialist in steel because it could say with more knowledge. This representative will receive all the information given to the AFIP and the National Securities Commission, is not problematic. But it is not neutral is to change the game by Decree of Necessity and Urgency to less than two weeks of the assembly of Techint.

"Normally the status of the company should be proportional representation of shareholders ".

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day history of political alliances in Argentina

For Israel Lotersztain

Master in History from the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella / Business / E x INTI Research director

Columnist Plural Construction , Fernando Mauri program.

The political opposition is considering a bond election to face Kirchner, and it is interesting to consider what history teaches us about our country. And when we travel, we see that in principle there is little experience of partnerships. A presidential system, such as that posed by the law of Argentina, tends to the contrary.

alliance's first experience as possible is where democracy begins (ie, already approved Sáenz Peña Law) in 1916. Yrigoyen was a great opportunity to address this political alternative, since it had the number of voters needed to be anointed. But it would not hear of what he called "conspiracies", refused even to receive, whether it was merely to listen to the other parties ... The Santa Fe voters had to give unconditionally, and then ruled without consulting with anyone ever (at Whatever the merits of his government may have had, his attitude left sat a line of conduct to follow ...).

In subsequent elections, Alvear Yrigoyen in 1922 and in 1928 had large majorities, so any alliance was thought unnecessary, but probably would have been very useful in Congress, especially in the Senate. Then came the 1930 coup, the interregnum Uriburu corporatist and its failure to come to the first alliance effective, elected in 1932 that led Augustine P. Fair and radicals formed by antiyrigoyenistas (Antipersonalist), conservative and independent socialists.

From the standpoint of political and institutional, was a regrettable experience. Came to power due to the prohibition of radicalism Yrigoyenist, and applied consistently and blatantly fraud in every election. Also, the harsh repression of labor sectors was a common occurrence, although in a world ruled by the Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Stalin, etc. We can reasonably argue that they respect the basic freedoms of speech and press.

Without

But in the economic successes achieved to amaze. In a world marked by the worst debacle of capitalism in its history, where the Argentinean exports had fallen at times to less than a third of its value and had no claim, Argentina did not do anything wrong, came out pretty fast of the crisis. He made a virtue of necessity, and unable to import due to lack of currency launched an interesting and subsidized industrial policy of import substitution began to change the face of the national economy and thus the entire society. It also introduced successful fiscal and financial instruments, such as income tax and the creation of Central Bank, was renegotiated in full and without public debt default and cleaned up the broken financial system, launched an ambitious public works plan with routes crossing the country, etc.

This coalition had no future, clearly its political vices of origin. When this partnership was renewed in 1938 with the formula Ortiz - Castillo came the problems. Ortiz, radical antipersonalist wanted to reintroduce the cleanliness of the vote, and it began to agree with Alvear and Fair. But, as a historian, God voted against. Ortiz ill and then died, and in the same year also did Alvear and Fair. The other leg of the alliance, represented by the ultraconservative Castillo, I just wanted to stay in power and step up corrupt practices and the revolution of June 4 became almost inevitable. As noted, the end was a failed alliance.

already on another level of analysis, the other possible alliances, but never specified in detail, the first thing, of course, comes to mind is the famous Democratic Union, which lost for quite a bit against Peron 1946. Ranged from ultra-conservative one end to the Communist Party in the other, through all intermediate ranges. Basically just joined Peron hatred, but one wonders how could they govern have succeeded ...

There were also other alliances that never crystallized, and that they might have dramatically changed the future of our history. For example, in 1963 Illia was elected with only 25% of the vote. Was it not logical that an alliance would offer Oscar Party Alende and intransigent, that gave voters? Nothing serious between them ideologically. While we can not know if Alende been accepted, or if it had reached power to counterbalance the military coup, trade unionists and journalists as Jacobo Timerman and Mariano Grondona, without doubt have acted to expand its base of support would have been much greater legitimacy. But the inheritance Yrigoyenist weighed too much about the admirably honest and democratic Arturo Illia. A real missed opportunity.

Another alliance failed: in 1973 for a week after the resignation of Campora, the widespread rumor that circulated was that the formula that would replace Perón - Balbin. This was awaiting the call from Vicente Lopez that never came, unfortunately. Perhaps, of course is mere speculation, we had saved or limited the terrible bloodshed that the country experienced from 1976.

now getting closer to this, a memory that will surely fall ill to radical friends what is the Historic Third Movement attempted to Alfonsin tried to implement, such as incorporating Peronist Alderete unionist his cabinet. More of a government economist at that time assured me in confidence that these political ambitions destroyed their demands for "politically motivated monetary issues" at the Austral Plan and gave reasonable start to the race which ended with inflation ...

hyper

chronologically course leads inevitably almanac to speak of the Alliance which won elections in 1999 and only lasted until 2001 and still all remember. While the government is too close temporarily to speak as a historian, yet I think that a future historian were probably point out that a time bomb ticking armed: a great debt, a rigid currency board, all linked to Argentina where people are often deeply suspicious of his own money and she fled at the slightest sign of danger. We also point out is that regardless of the validity that I personally may have had the attitude of Chacho Alvarez waived against bribery in the Senate, such waiver was the signal to the markets of the alliance that gave support government policy had been destroyed. And that's where the outflow of capital was transformed into a veritable stampede.

Reaching a conclusion is very difficult, but I'd say that history clearly teaches us that alliances should not be merely tactical and circumstantial, but seriously. Otherwise unlikely to be workable and his fate is highly uncertain.

Another feature that tends to anticipate the failure of these fronts is that coalition anti-stamped x (antiyrigoyenistas, anti-Peronist, antimenemistas, antikirchneristas) in Argentina's history have sometimes served at the polls, but not to govern. Hence the need for such agreements should not be mere gadgetry electoral strategy but should rather be thinking about how to manage programmatically.

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day policy in October 2011 Guillermo Carracedo

For Bernando Poblet

- "Again a national election on the horizon and no candidate ...

- How not candidates? Look at the list: for everyone, old, the
are those who want to go, right, left, center, of
cost, flexible .. What do I know?

- Yes, of course, candidates are, but I think that what they say and what they did
are candidates for future "throw them all";
few think that importantly, do not come because then nobody will
...
-
- What do you mean, that we should not vote?

- No way! Voting is essential. The issue is how we learned the
citizens to choose? "
............................

These doubts Will a genuine concern of many? Or win by a landslide
resignation, indifference or disinformation? In an election

everyone decides. Decide, at the rational,
choose among several alternatives that best contributes to the desired goal
one, that brings us to that need to be clear what we want to keep
and what we want to change. In practical terms
I think we all think, first, what benefits me, then, what we value in
who will lead us from the ideas and capabilities to the personal conduct
convince us that can manage the state with
efficiency, and do what they should do to ensure a reasonably foreseeable
country in the coming years ...

I must confess I am confused, and my anxiety increased because
nights ago I dreamed that someone, an ordinary citizen, "answered the environment
the next national election in what we value and
proposals of the candidates? A lady with the image of the Republic, with a Phrygian cap and all-
asked a few questions ... Surely it was just a nightmare and
I heard this, by no means an Argentine representative to
foot in October to choose who will lead us:

is important for a city ... Does

honest conduct of those who lead us or run for it?

- No. We do not want honest useless. We had a few, what matters is
do things. What

commit to combat corruption
areas who use power to profit from growth brutal heritage
view of everyone?

- No. I care what they do as officers, privacy is
otherwise. For that they are judges, we do not judge.

ensure alternation "as a means to that impunity will not be consolidated?

- Here all stolen, ma'am, those who come will too, so
not have to change horses in midstream. Cow querencia
changes are late calving. "Again people must learn
all over again?

Do check that applicants have the knowledge, experience, skills and attitudes
necessary to ensure effective management and
efficient use of resources?

- No. We need leaders, charismatic leaders and imposed
tell us where we go, that make us feel that "here is unclear who
rules." To laburar are technicians.

What behaviors demonstrate their respect for institutions,
prudence and tolerance?

- No, ma'am, this is impractical, we are children of rigor is needed here
iron hand. When you want to be prolijito the sweep, enough to look at the history
recent years.

What government to integrate society in Argentina that is increasingly
divided into sterile confrontation?

- What are you talking? Divided because there were always social injustice.
Up the underdogs! We will always be divided. So you have to choose where you want
military side, this side or the other. There will always be
Boca and River.

What will tell us to stop the deteriorating
education at all levels?

- No. Just how many reform plans had?. We must pay very well
teachers and give them a computer to every student. With that manages
topic. Also what educate both boys and then not get
laburo nowhere? Or ask a secondary basis for laburar
waiter or something. There are many verses in this lady, which is deteriorating and
laburo income ...

Hear concrete proposals for how they will generate genuine work
replace the tangle of social grants managed by pointers?

- No. That's all verse in the world if the job is disappearing!.
We need to ensure revenues from the state, that's what it is. What

suggest concrete actions to restore security in
streets?

- We want security, of course. But we all know is
what to do, a question of putting policemen who did not suppress but to get into channels
offenders, protect social protest, meet political leaders and not
judges and also be talking down to young
have dreams, ideals and all that. Before police had secured gigs
of the pool and prostitutes and were quiet
doing their laburo and had security, now and as it drew
street is hard, being on drugs, kidnapping, weighing.
must live and let live!

What will tell us how to generate genuine investment accompanying the
forced consumption rate and control inflation
generates the paradox of economic growth and the number of poor?

- No. Inflation is rising prices. What we need is that workers can handle
companies to check that employers do not
the increase these rates are automated, increasing
make more products with fewer people and more expensive to win over without limits how can it be?

commit to what the central bank to fulfill its function
specifies the protection against and control the emission?

- No. Central Bank I have to protect me. If
dump dollars to pay debts and to hold the state to have money to
assistance. This will ensure social peace.

tell us what and how they will invest in the energy structure
to ensure the future needs of gas, oil, electricity?

- Eye that these are the arguments of the international cartels!
want us to be major producers such as Libya or Iraq to end
invading us when a crisis. We must treasure the
Argentinize ground, as they do in Venezuela or Bolivia.

What do they propose to pay all taxes and
equitably distribute federal income criteria?

- No. of those who worked without pay. People look
not paying taxes because not enough money and earning huge sums
know very well as avoid them. The first is necessary, the second is greed.
must limit the profits of big business.
federal distribution is a problem how many provinces because the chieftains broke
currar the wealth? Someone has to be short.

What we ensure corporate control
union to act within the law and limit its progression mafioso?

- Stop, Mrs. .. Clarify the goals, corporate mafia
also those of employers, oligopolies that meet for resale, of the field
filled dough with soy and meat and
support means that they are part of them, In summary, the oligarchy that is alive and kicking
. By train you choose, best known evil than an unknown good. What

commit the state and all its resources to combat the presence of drug cartels
they move through the structure of society
with its attendant corruption, drugs and death?

- Yes, something must be done, but the underlying problem of drug is that the Americans invented
are those who consume it. To fix their
home, stop using and it's over. We are young to be a market
interested, nothing happens .... What

commit to transparency in the figures of the economy through a INDEC
professional, apolitical and efficient?

- INDEC? Who uses these phone numbers? No hump with that lady! That's so
curren economists who never stuck.
Look at the mess of the global crisis. What

commit resources for justice and the appointment of judges for contests, and merits
?

- I do not understand. Is not it so?
.............................. .....

cold sweat beaded my forehead, I awoke with a start but with relief, if the dream had continued
..... Responses did not impress me, what struck me is that
realized that there was belief in the claims.
If one firmly believes in what he says the attitude is inevitably skewed in favor of ..
or against ... the mind filters
only information that confirms what we think and rejects what crashes, although there is no support
, even prejudices, even
imagined realities or partial truths.

I imagined in 2013, heading for a predictable historical frustration, the
that takes us back a decade, with the same matrix of the past, with Argentina's conviction
not learn. Ortega y Gasset remembered "
do not know what happens to us and that is precisely what happens to us."

How do you get the immediacy of millions of people? How instill
look and a genuine concern for the future? What to do for the ordinary citizen
to develop a conceptual filter, a look that protects critical
misinformation that obscures?

life education. We must ask our applicants
concrete ideas and plans are to get clarity on this vital and critical
tool: what to do, and with whom, with what resources, how
means, when where to begin, as will ensure that it is a state policy
permanence in time.

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Barney again. The film

Yesterday saw the end The World According to Barney, the movie. It was a mistake. I have mind still full of the wonderful novel by Mordecai Richler, Barney version (why have not respected in Castilian the original title of the movie and book?). And with that memory alive so recent and the subtleties of the text, the meanders by running the memory of Barney, the snares, omissions, judgments or ironic thick and furious attacks that deploys the powerful first person in the novel, that Barney in old age increasingly beset by Alzheimer's wants to offer his version of what happened, it was impossible to enjoy the film with clear eyes. If I had seen a month ago, or in a few years, I guess I could having forged a very different view. Teachers many movies, such classic Hollywood movies were based on novels that do not know: better, much better, our consideration of this film is more unbiased.

But I think it's a film very neat, dignified, and Paul Giamatti, the actor who plays Barney, proves to be as great as in other stories in which men also embroidered fundamentally good, but they carried within striking dose awkwardness, anger and resentment. Men (remember Sideways or American Splendor ?) Beaten, lack of balance, elegance and safety that other people exhibit the living. The Barney of this world mess up, eat or drink too much and talk nonsense in the most inopportune times, so that sometimes, instead of showing their generosity and foresight, are assholes. Then, oh, repent and flogging, but it is too late.

I will not detail the many aspects of the novel that are missing in the film, several of which are essential in the life of Barney. But I write in a place plagued by nationalism, I regret that something has gone without being critical, permeates the present (year 1995) of the novel: the question of Quebec independence. The novel is not to be deeply Canadian (that has also been lost in the movie) is set in a Montreal who vote the possible secession of Quebec. In that referendum, 1995 French-speaking separatists were closer than ever of success, to achieve the 49.6 of the vote. And Barney and some of his friends, biblingües as Mordecai Richler (author, of course, important books against the myths of Quebec nationalism), but contrary to segregation, not constrained in scathing judgments about what they read and hear, on leaders of the Parti Québécois and language inspectors, fining those who forget not French in any tag or text (that would be a felony), but those who do not have English texts in a size much lower than in French.

Finally, do not like me. If you read Barney's version, do not go to the movies. At least until forgetfulness not completed its work.

PS A very minor detail: as a tribute to Mordecai Richler, a particularly famous and beloved author in Canada, despite its poignancy, the film appear as side the country's best known filmmakers, Atom Egoyan, David Cronenberg and in two scenes, Denys Arcand, director, among others, The decline of American empire and The Barbarian Invasions. A French-language independence, but a close friend of Richler. And friendship comes first.

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in plural construction

Dialogue with our columnist Guillermo CARRACEDO , economist and holder CADEC SA consultancy


"It is difficult to determine, if it continues the President CFK-what changes can do to one side or the other."


"Here it is reacting according to the daily surveys. If at any time should they see further and more radical, they will do, but that while the economic model is working and people are happy with the economy. "


"We see car manufacturing figures, the boom of summer, as the Government feels that the middle class happy, excited without opposition, the Government intends to continue along this road keeping in mind the mood of the people. If you win in October next year the Government will adapt to one side or the other. Dollar will continue to enter the soybean, but commodity prices are not going to keep rising as the dollar will not weaken much more in the world and food-consuming countries are not willing to pay any price. The price of soybeans will be stalled and the increase in the value of our export commodities are not going to give more. And the government will have to find an alternative to continue raising and continue to give welfare state which seems we all find that is totally unrealistic. ".


" This model leads to the outbreak, but in Argentina can happen in 6 months or 5 years. A country can not live with this level of inflation in dollar terms, is impossible. The convertibility took 4 years off. "

" The current situation is very similar to the 97 years when we knew that convertibility could not continue, which exploded and took 4 years to do so when many thought that the thing was falling in a few months. Today we are the same, just move the clock back. We have a very strong dollar inflation, We can not continue, and commodity prices are stagnant. "


" a radicalization via control of the grain trade, or anti-crisis fund as proposed by Héctor Recalde, would the loss of this unreal state welfare. We are today without productive investments are minimal, if there is financial speculation. And if you punish more production, few investments are being made are going to stop doing, and what it is looking to boost consumption, can not affect production. And if it reduces the production, consumption, yes there is going to take a totally uncontrollable inflation. Today estamos en niveles altos, 25/30%, pero no incontrolables, ya que vemos los techos. Se van marcando cada vez nuevos techos, pero lo complicado es cuando uno no ve los techos...".

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Our last 10 tweets

Para la muy seria Poliarquía: CFK entre 40 y 45%; detrás, Macri y la UCR 20% c/u, con una leve ventaja de Macri.

Match C. Germano and E. Fidanza: we face a scenario similar to d1995 c / voting share proMenem

http:/ / abordajes.blogspot.com/2011/03/carlos-germano-en-construccion-plural.html

http://bit.ly/esAPXF

src CFK is facing in October, but there at manipulac d K. .. Among CEOPyOPSM (Bacman and Zuleta P) there are large differences

C / = cannot undecided, CEOP about OPSM is 8.7% + d score p / CFK, almost 50% lower d score p / Alfonsin, and + d 50% less p / Carrió .

The desperate Duhalde today q x agreements elect "to q does not win" CFK "is the same q q said she was not going to xq reelection did not give the nrs?

G. Carracedo in C.Plural / R.Cultura: "The model leads to the outbreak, may be in 6 months to 5 years.The convertibilidsd took 4 years to explode.:

C. H. Schick in Plural: "He got off the ground w / Gains, but c / d this year the joint and affected workers will not be 1200000, but 1400000.

E. Zamorano s / the play Don Arturo Illia http://abordajes.blogspot.com/2011/04/el president-who-met-your-promesas.html

As journalists we should leave d buy manipulations K: Just to repeat what d 1 "model." O Public TV / q + q 1 is no official channel (ist).

d Very good service the d informal state news agency (sorry, agency Publik): q scoop before it occurred, the Clarin blokeo

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assumed as a journalist K. .. Magazines


From its strategic logic friend enemy kirchnerismo-perhaps like no other, has divided the period into two, and in this context for other complex is situated in a third position, Instead we believe is most appropriate considering that the official story is imbued with a strong degree of manipulation and distortion.

This third way that avoids the recalcitrant positions on one side and the other must be exercised especially when the auction is between the two sides of the same coin, that is, between societies former political / economic and which are configured at the time the Menem and Kirchner, or Grupo Clarin and the current ruling party.

In this scenario, it is striking that some colleagues did not take as K-government, when are centerpieces of the Government's communications device. Perhaps the explanation has to sought in some cases the understanding that today think exactly the opposite of what they believed and preached only yesterday ...

By referring to "ruling party made no", obviously not referring to colleagues who lack only a small sign hanging from Nestornauta and our current president, and those who are active in the program belligerently emitting 6,7,8 the so-called public broadcaster when it comes to clearly state and a signal officer (ist).

Mention goes to the group of journalists who hide behind their proximity to the government through a front and merciless criticism 'enemies' (Clarín, the monopolistic multimedia, The Nation newspaper devalued oligarch and opposition, among others). In this case, the ruling is supported by the hidden (or embarrassing?) Use to vilify their opponents.

Go as one example: if one takes the trouble to compare between the past postings of conductor Victor Hugo Morales on TWITTER network in which information about the interviews that will keep the air in his morning cycle on Radio Continental quantitative data that emerge are far from denying his "sympathy" for the ruling Kirchner:


reporting only a 3 Morales opposition leaders:


Ricardo Alfonsin (UCR)


Héctor Polino (PS)


Diego Santilli (PRO).



Meanwhile, 12 "figures" of the ruling or the FPV-partners including 4 ministers and 2 intermediate-level officials were given the floor:

Aníbal Fernández Nilda Garre



Florencio Randazzo


Amado Boudou Gabriel Mariotto


Diego Bossio (Anses)

Daniel Filmus

Jorge Taiana
Estela de Carlotto


Vilma Ibarra

Facundo Moyano

Horacio Verbitsky


There'd be nothing wrong with bleaching elections and positions, but of course The flip in some cases is so blatant it is better to play fair, while largely benefited by discriminatorily selective government advertising.

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