For Israel Lotersztain
The political opposition is considering a bond election to face Kirchner, and it is interesting to consider what history teaches us about our country. And when we travel, we see that in principle there is little experience of partnerships. A presidential system, such as that posed by the law of Argentina, tends to the contrary.
alliance's first experience as possible is where democracy begins (ie, already approved Sáenz Peña Law) in 1916. Yrigoyen was a great opportunity to address this political alternative, since it had the number of voters needed to be anointed. But it would not hear of what he called "conspiracies", refused even to receive, whether it was merely to listen to the other parties ... The Santa Fe voters had to give unconditionally, and then ruled without consulting with anyone ever (at Whatever the merits of his government may have had, his attitude left sat a line of conduct to follow ...).
In subsequent elections, Alvear Yrigoyen in 1922 and in 1928 had large majorities, so any alliance was thought unnecessary, but probably would have been very useful in Congress, especially in the Senate. Then came the 1930 coup, the interregnum Uriburu corporatist and its failure to come to the first alliance effective, elected in 1932 that led Augustine P. Fair and radicals formed by antiyrigoyenistas (Antipersonalist), conservative and independent socialists.
From the standpoint of political and institutional, was a regrettable experience. Came to power due to the prohibition of radicalism Yrigoyenist, and applied consistently and blatantly fraud in every election. Also, the harsh repression of labor sectors was a common occurrence, although in a world ruled by the Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Stalin, etc. We can reasonably argue that they respect the basic freedoms of speech and press.
But in the economic successes achieved to amaze. In a world marked by the worst debacle of capitalism in its history, where the Argentinean exports had fallen at times to less than a third of its value and had no claim, Argentina did not do anything wrong, came out pretty fast of the crisis. He made a virtue of necessity, and unable to import due to lack of currency launched an interesting and subsidized industrial policy of import substitution began to change the face of the national economy and thus the entire society. It also introduced successful fiscal and financial instruments, such as income tax and the creation of Central Bank, was renegotiated in full and without public debt default and cleaned up the broken financial system, launched an ambitious public works plan with routes crossing the country, etc.
This coalition had no future, clearly its political vices of origin. When this partnership was renewed in 1938 with the formula Ortiz - Castillo came the problems. Ortiz, radical antipersonalist wanted to reintroduce the cleanliness of the vote, and it began to agree with Alvear and Fair. But, as a historian, God voted against. Ortiz ill and then died, and in the same year also did Alvear and Fair. The other leg of the alliance, represented by the ultraconservative Castillo, I just wanted to stay in power and step up corrupt practices and the revolution of June 4 became almost inevitable. As noted, the end was a failed alliance.
already on another level of analysis, the other possible alliances, but never specified in detail, the first thing, of course, comes to mind is the famous Democratic Union, which lost for quite a bit against Peron 1946. Ranged from ultra-conservative one end to the Communist Party in the other, through all intermediate ranges. Basically just joined Peron hatred, but one wonders how could they govern have succeeded ...
There were also other alliances that never crystallized, and that they might have dramatically changed the future of our history. For example, in 1963 Illia was elected with only 25% of the vote. Was it not logical that an alliance would offer Oscar Party Alende and intransigent, that gave voters? Nothing serious between them ideologically. While we can not know if Alende been accepted, or if it had reached power to counterbalance the military coup, trade unionists and journalists as Jacobo Timerman and Mariano Grondona, without doubt have acted to expand its base of support would have been much greater legitimacy. But the inheritance Yrigoyenist weighed too much about the admirably honest and democratic Arturo Illia. A real missed opportunity.
Another alliance failed: in 1973 for a week after the resignation of Campora, the widespread rumor that circulated was that the formula that would replace Perón - Balbin. This was awaiting the call from Vicente Lopez that never came, unfortunately. Perhaps, of course is mere speculation, we had saved or limited the terrible bloodshed that the country experienced from 1976.
now getting closer to this, a memory that will surely fall ill to radical friends what is the Historic Third Movement attempted to Alfonsin tried to implement, such as incorporating Peronist Alderete unionist his cabinet. More of a government economist at that time assured me in confidence that these political ambitions destroyed their demands for "politically motivated monetary issues" at the Austral Plan and gave reasonable start to the race which ended with inflation ...
hyper chronologically course leads inevitably almanac to speak of the Alliance which won elections in 1999 and only lasted until 2001 and still all remember. While the government is too close temporarily to speak as a historian, yet I think that a future historian were probably point out that a time bomb ticking armed: a great debt, a rigid currency board, all linked to Argentina where people are often deeply suspicious of his own money and she fled at the slightest sign of danger. We also point out is that regardless of the validity that I personally may have had the attitude of Chacho Alvarez waived against bribery in the Senate, such waiver was the signal to the markets of the alliance that gave support government policy had been destroyed. And that's where the outflow of capital was transformed into a veritable stampede.
Reaching a conclusion is very difficult, but I'd say that history clearly teaches us that alliances should not be merely tactical and circumstantial, but seriously. Otherwise unlikely to be workable and his fate is highly uncertain.
Another feature that tends to anticipate the failure of these fronts is that coalition anti-stamped x (antiyrigoyenistas, anti-Peronist, antimenemistas, antikirchneristas) in Argentina's history have sometimes served at the polls, but not to govern. Hence the need for such agreements should not be mere gadgetry electoral strategy but should rather be thinking about how to manage programmatically.
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