Dialogue with our columnist Guillermo CARRACEDO , economist and holder CADEC SA consultancy
"It is difficult to determine, if it continues the President CFK-what changes can do to one side or the other."
"Here it is reacting according to the daily surveys. If at any time should they see further and more radical, they will do, but that while the economic model is working and people are happy with the economy. "
"We see car manufacturing figures, the boom of summer, as the Government feels that the middle class happy, excited without opposition, the Government intends to continue along this road keeping in mind the mood of the people. If you win in October next year the Government will adapt to one side or the other. Dollar will continue to enter the soybean, but commodity prices are not going to keep rising as the dollar will not weaken much more in the world and food-consuming countries are not willing to pay any price. The price of soybeans will be stalled and the increase in the value of our export commodities are not going to give more. And the government will have to find an alternative to continue raising and continue to give welfare state which seems we all find that is totally unrealistic. ".
" This model leads to the outbreak, but in Argentina can happen in 6 months or 5 years. A country can not live with this level of inflation in dollar terms, is impossible. The convertibility took 4 years off. "
" The current situation is very similar to the 97 years when we knew that convertibility could not continue, which exploded and took 4 years to do so when many thought that the thing was falling in a few months. Today we are the same, just move the clock back. We have a very strong dollar inflation, We can not continue, and commodity prices are stagnant. "
" a radicalization via control of the grain trade, or anti-crisis fund as proposed by Héctor Recalde, would the loss of this unreal state welfare. We are today without productive investments are minimal, if there is financial speculation. And if you punish more production, few investments are being made are going to stop doing, and what it is looking to boost consumption, can not affect production. And if it reduces the production, consumption, yes there is going to take a totally uncontrollable inflation. Today estamos en niveles altos, 25/30%, pero no incontrolables, ya que vemos los techos. Se van marcando cada vez nuevos techos, pero lo complicado es cuando uno no ve los techos...".
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